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Kick-off · Matchday 11

Monaco vs Auxerre: Prediction

Monaco
59%Home win
Auxerre

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.94 – 1.01
Team rating (Elo)1498 – 1456

Recent form

MonacoDWDLD
AuxerreWWLWD
#TeamPGDPts
1Monaco8+415
2Auxerre8-610

Head to head

  • Auxerre 1–2 Monaco2025-09-13

Match preview

Monaco host Auxerre in the Ligue 1 on 21 November 2026. Monaco sit 4th on 15 points and Auxerre are 12th on 10. Monaco have won 1 of their last 5 (DWDLD), while Auxerre have won 3 of 5 (WWLWD). In their last 1 meetings, Monaco won 1, Auxerre won 0 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Monaco 59%, the draw 22% and Auxerre 19%, so Monaco are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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