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FTMatchday 5

Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain: Prediction

📍 Orange Vélodrome

Marseille1
FT
Paris Saint-Germain0

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

1 goal
MarseilleParis Saint-Germain
  1. Nayef Aguerd5'
  2. Benjamin Pavardyellow card18'
  3. Timothy Weahyellow card50'
  4. Igor Paixãoon61'
  5. 64'Willian Pachoon
  6. 73'Warren Zaïre-Emeryon
  7. Timothy Weahon78'
  8. Amine Gouirion79'
  9. Mason Greenwoodon89'
  10. 89'Gonçalo Ramoson
  11. Michael Murilloyellow card90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

MarseilleParis Saint-Germain
  • 32%Possession68%
  • 1Expected goals (xG)1
  • 9Shots12
  • 2Shots on target5
  • 5Corners3
  • 16Fouls7
  • 3Yellow cards0
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Offsides1
  • 5Saves1
  • 304Passes669

Line-ups

Marseille

  • 23Pierre Hojbjerg
  • 1Geronimo Rulli
  • 33Emerson Palmieri
  • 28Benjamin Pavard
  • 22Timothy Weah
  • 9Amine Gouiri
  • 5Leonardo Balerdi
  • 21Nayef Aguerd
  • 10Mason Greenwood
  • 17Matt O'Riley
  • 14Igor Paixão

Paris Saint-Germain

  • 5Marquinhos
  • 2Achraf Hakimi
  • 8Fabián
  • 6Ilya Zabarnyi
  • 17Vitinha
  • 7Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
  • 25Nuno Mendes
  • 9Gonçalo Ramos
  • 51Willian Pacho
  • 30Lucas Chevalier
  • 33Warren Zaïre-Emery

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–
Expected goals (model)–
Team rating (Elo)1497 – 1596

Recent form

MarseilleLWLWL
Paris Saint-GermainWWWWW
#TeamPGDPts
1Paris Saint-Germain9+1120
2Marseille9+1318

Head to head

  • Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint-Germain2026-09-20

Match preview

Marseille host Paris Saint-Germain in the Ligue 1 on 22 September 2025. Marseille sit 3rd on 18 points and Paris Saint-Germain are 1st on 20. Marseille have won 2 of their last 5 (LWLWL), while Paris Saint-Germain have won 5 of 5 (WWWWW). In their last 1 meetings, Marseille won 0, Paris Saint-Germain won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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