Kick-off · Sun, 27 Dec, 10:00 pm ISTMatchday 17
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest: Prediction
Manchester United56%Home win
Nottingham Forest56% Home win23% Draw21% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.85 – 1.06
Team rating (Elo)1532 – 1465
Recent form
Manchester UnitedLDDDLNottingham ForestWLLLD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester United | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | -4 | 6 |
Head to head
- Manchester United 3–2 Nottingham Forest2026-05-17
- Nottingham Forest 2–2 Manchester United2025-11-01
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
