FTMatchday 27

Manchester City vs Newcastle United: Prediction

📍 Etihad Stadium

Manchester City2

Newcastle United1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

Manchester CityNewcastle United

9'Dan Burnyellow card
Nico O'Reillyassist Omar Marmoush14'
22'Lewis Hallassist Jacob Ramsey
Nico O'Reillyassist Erling Haaland27'
Ruben Diasyellow card41'
Ruben Diason46'
48'Joe Willockyellow card
Bernardo Silvayellow card50'
Omar Marmoushon58'
60'Nick Woltemadeon
60'Joe Willockon
62'Harvey Barnesyellow card
65'Kieran Trippieryellow card
78'Anthony Gordonon
78'Anthony Elangaon
Antoine Semenyoon87'
89'Joelintonyellow card

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Manchester CityNewcastle United

56%Possession44%
1.35Expected goals (xG)0.39
15Shots11
7Shots on target5
5Corners4
11Fouls13
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0
1Offsides5
4Saves5
460Passes357

Line-ups

Manchester City

20Bernardo Silva
25Gianluigi Donnarumma
3Ruben Dias
16Rodri
42Antoine Semenyo
21Rayan Aït-Nouri
9Erling Haaland
15Marc Guéhi
7Omar Marmoush
27Matheus Nunes
33Nico O'Reilly

Newcastle United

2Kieran Trippier
33Dan Burn
1Nick Pope
8Sandro Tonali
27Nick Woltemade
10Anthony Gordon
28Joe Willock
41Jacob Ramsey
12Malick Thiaw
20Anthony Elanga
3Lewis Hall

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1535 – 1529

Recent form

Manchester CityLWDWW

Newcastle UnitedDLLLW

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	38	+42	78
2	Newcastle United	38	-2	49

Head to head

Newcastle United 2–1 Manchester City2025-11-22

Match preview

Manchester City host Newcastle United in the Premier League on 21 February 2026. Manchester City sit 2nd on 78 points and Newcastle United are 12th on 49. Manchester City have won 3 of their last 5 (LWDWW), while Newcastle United have won 1 of 5 (DLLLW). In their last 1 meetings, Manchester City won 0, Newcastle United won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.