FTMatchday 6

Manchester City vs Burnley: Prediction

📍 Etihad Stadium

Manchester City5

Burnley1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

5 goals

Manchester CityBurnley

Maxime Esteveown goal12'
27'Quilindschy Hartmanyellow card
30'Kyle Walkeryellow card
38'Jaidon Anthonyassist Quilindschy Hartman
Matheus Nunesassist Erling Haaland61'
Savinhoon62'
62'Loum Tchaounaon
63'Jaidon Anthonyyellow card
Maxime Esteveown goal65'
Joško Gvardiolon70'
79'Josh Cullenon
80'Lyle Fosteron
Phil Fodenyellow card83'
Nico O'Reillyon83'
Tijjani Reijnderson83'
88'Jaidon Anthonyon
88'Quilindschy Hartmanon
Erling Haaland90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Manchester CityBurnley

68%Possession32%
2Expected goals (xG)0
21Shots9
8Shots on target2
10Corners2
5Fouls7
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
1Offsides1
1Saves5
634Passes294

Line-ups

Manchester City

25Gianluigi Donnarumma
3Ruben Dias
47Phil Foden
9Erling Haaland
4Tijjani Reijnders
11Jérémy Doku
24Joško Gvardiol
27Matheus Nunes
14Nico González
26Savinho
33Nico O'Reilly

Burnley

2Kyle Walker
1Martin Dubravka
24Josh Cullen
29Josh Laurent
16Florentino Luís
11Jaidon Anthony
18Hjalmar Ekdal
9Lyle Foster
5Maxime Esteve
17Loum Tchaouna
3Quilindschy Hartman

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1535 – 1497

Recent form

Manchester CityLWWDW

BurnleyWLLDL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	38	+42	78
2	Burnley	38	-37	22

Head to head

Burnley 0–1 Manchester City2026-04-22

Match preview

Manchester City host Burnley in the Premier League on 27 September 2025. Manchester City sit 2nd on 78 points and Burnley are 19th on 22. Manchester City have won 3 of their last 5 (LWWDW), while Burnley have won 1 of 5 (WLLDL). In their last 1 meetings, Manchester City won 1, Burnley won 0 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.