Kick-off · Sat, 30 Jan, 08:30 pm ISTMatchday 23
Manchester City vs Arsenal: Prediction
Manchester City46%Home win
Arsenal46% Home win25% Draw29% Away win
Tipster consensus · who picked what
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.61 – 1.22
Team rating (Elo)1535 – 1532
Recent form
Manchester CityWLWWLArsenalWWWDW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 |
Head to head
- Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal2026-04-19
- Arsenal 1–1 Manchester City2025-09-21
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
