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Kick-off · Matchday 14

Málaga vs Athletic Bilbao: Prediction

Málaga
39%Home win
Athletic Bilbao

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.35 – 1.25
Team rating (Elo)1439 – 1483

Recent form

MálagaLDLDL
Athletic BilbaoDDDLW
#TeamPGDPts
1Athletic Bilbao8+512
2Málaga10-115

Head to head

Not enough past results yet.

Match preview

Málaga host Athletic Bilbao in the La Liga on 29 November 2026. Málaga sit 20th on 5 points and Athletic Bilbao are 7th on 12. Málaga have won 0 of their last 5 (LDLDL), while Athletic Bilbao have won 1 of 5 (DDDLW). There is no recent head-to-head record between these sides in our data. TipKhel's model gives Málaga 39%, the draw 26% and Athletic Bilbao 35%, so Málaga are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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