Mainz vs Stuttgart: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
MainzWLWLL
StuttgartLDLWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 | Stuttgart | 7 | 0 | 9 |
Head to head
- Mainz 2–2 Stuttgart2026-03-07
- Stuttgart 2–1 Mainz2025-10-26
Why the model leans Mainz
- Close call: 38% Mainz, 24% draw, 38% Stuttgart.
- Stuttgart rate higher on our strength scale (1517 vs 1499).
- Mainz are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Stuttgart won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Mainz 0, Stuttgart 1, draws 1.
Match preview
Mainz host Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on 22 May 2027. Mainz sit 8th on 10 points and Stuttgart are 9th on 9. Mainz have won 2 of their last 5 (WLWLL), while Stuttgart have won 1 of 5 (LDLWL). In their last 2 meetings, Mainz won 0, Stuttgart won 1 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Mainz 38%, the draw 24% and Stuttgart 38%, so Mainz are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
