Mainz vs St Pauli: Prediction
📍 MEWA ARENA
Not enough past results yet.
Match events
0 goals- Kaishu Sanoyellow card32'
- 58'⇄Andréas Hountondjion
- 62'Mathias Pereira-Lageyellow card
- 74'⇄Louis Oppieon
- ⇄Benedict Hollerbachon78'
- ⇄Silvan Widmeron79'
- ⇄Nadiem Amirion90'
- 90'⇄Mathias Pereira-Lageon
Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.
Match stats
- 53%Possession47%
- 1Expected goals (xG)0
- 13Shots5
- 1Shots on target1
- 9Corners5
- 5Fouls9
- 1Yellow cards1
- 0Red cards0
- 1Offsides0
- 1Saves1
- 403Passes365
Line-ups
Mainz
- 31Dominik Kohr
- 21Danny da Costa
- 30Silvan Widmer
- 10Nadiem Amiri
- 7Jae-Sung Lee
- 25Andreas Hanche-Olsen
- 8Paul Nebel
- 17Benedict Hollerbach
- 33Daniel Batz
- 6Kaishu Sano
- 48Kacper Potulski
St Pauli
- 7Jackson Irvine
- 28Mathias Pereira-Lage
- 5Hauke Wahl
- 25Adam Dźwigała
- 16Joel Fujita
- 6James Sands
- 22Nikola Vasilj
- 11Arkadiusz Pyrka
- 3Karol Mets
- 27Andréas Hountondji
- 23Louis Oppie
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
MainzDDLLD
St PauliLLLDW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 32 | -8 | 39 |
| 2 | St Pauli | 32 | -31 | 23 |
Head to head
- St Pauli 1–2 Mainz2026-05-03
Match preview
Mainz host St Pauli in the Bundesliga on 21 December 2025. Mainz sit 10th on 39 points and St Pauli are 18th on 23. Mainz have won 0 of their last 5 (DDLLD), while St Pauli have won 1 of 5 (LLLDW). In their last 1 meetings, Mainz won 1, St Pauli won 0 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
