Mainz vs Schalke 04: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
MainzWLWLL
Schalke 04DLLDL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 | Schalke 04 | 7 | -7 | 3 |
Head to head
- Schalke 04 0–1 Mainz2026-10-17
Why the model leans Mainz
- Mainz rate higher on our strength scale (1499 vs 1456).
- Mainz are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Schalke 04 won 0 of their last 5.
- League table: Mainz #8, Schalke 04 #18.
- Expected goals from the model: Mainz 2.0, Schalke 04 1.2.
Match preview
Mainz host Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga on 27 February 2027. Mainz sit 8th on 10 points and Schalke 04 are 18th on 3. Mainz have won 2 of their last 5 (WLWLL), while Schalke 04 have won 0 of 5 (DLLDL). In their last 1 meetings, Mainz won 1, Schalke 04 won 0 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Mainz 54%, the draw 22% and Schalke 04 24%, so Mainz are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
