Mainz vs RB Leipzig: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
MainzWLWLL
RB LeipzigLLWWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Head to head
- RB Leipzig 1–2 Mainz2026-01-31
- Mainz 0–1 RB Leipzig2025-09-13
Why the model leans RB Leipzig
- Close call: 37% Mainz, 24% draw, 39% RB Leipzig.
- Mainz rate higher on our strength scale (1499 vs 1472).
- Head-to-head in our records: Mainz 1, RB Leipzig 1, draws 0.
- Expected goals from the model: Mainz 1.5, RB Leipzig 1.6.
Match preview
Mainz host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on 10 April 2027. Mainz sit 8th on 10 points and RB Leipzig are 6th on 12. Mainz have won 2 of their last 5 (WLWLL), while RB Leipzig have won 2 of 5 (LLWWL). In their last 2 meetings, Mainz won 1, RB Leipzig won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Mainz 37%, the draw 24% and RB Leipzig 39%, so RB Leipzig are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
