Mainz vs Hamburg: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
MainzWLWLL
HamburgWWWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 | Hamburg | 7 | -7 | 9 |
Head to head
- Hamburg 0–5 Mainz2026-09-06
- Hamburg 4–0 Mainz2025-10-05
Why the model leans Mainz
- Mainz rate higher on our strength scale (1499 vs 1455).
- Mainz are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Mainz 1, Hamburg 1, draws 0.
- Expected goals from the model: Mainz 2.0, Hamburg 1.2.
Match preview
Mainz host Hamburg in the Bundesliga on 30 January 2027. Mainz sit 8th on 10 points and Hamburg are 11th on 9. Mainz have won 2 of their last 5 (WLWLL), while Hamburg have won 3 of 5 (WWWLL). In their last 2 meetings, Mainz won 1, Hamburg won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Mainz 54%, the draw 22% and Hamburg 24%, so Mainz are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
