Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
MainzWLWLL
Borussia DortmundDWWDW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 2 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Head to head
- Borussia Dortmund 4–0 Mainz2026-02-13
- Mainz 0–2 Borussia Dortmund2025-09-27
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund rate higher on our strength scale (1538 vs 1499).
- Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Mainz 0, Borussia Dortmund 2, draws 0.
- League table: Mainz #8, Borussia Dortmund #2.
- Expected goals from the model: Mainz 1.3, Borussia Dortmund 1.8.
Match preview
Mainz host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on 8 May 2027. Mainz sit 8th on 10 points and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 15. Mainz have won 2 of their last 5 (WLWLL), while Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of 5 (DWWDW). In their last 2 meetings, Mainz won 0, Borussia Dortmund won 2 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Mainz 29%, the draw 23% and Borussia Dortmund 48%, so Borussia Dortmund are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
