Mainz vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction
📍 MEWA ARENA
Not enough past results yet.
Match events
2 goals- 27'⚽Daniel Svenssonassist Julian Brandt
- 40'⚽Karim Adeyemiassist Julian Brandt
- 43'Yan Coutoyellow card
- Nadiem Amiriyellow card50'
- ⇄Maxim Leitschon63'
- ⇄Jae-Sung Leeon63'
- Robin Zentnerred card67'
- 68'⇄Karim Adeyemion
- ⇄Andreas Hanche-Olsenon69'
- 69'⇄Yan Coutoon
- 77'⇄Marcel Sabitzeron
- 77'⇄Felix Nmechaon
- ⇄Armindo Siebon80'
- ⇄Nadiem Amirion80'
- 87'⇄Maximilian Beieron
- Paul Nebelyellow card90'
Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.
Match stats
- 49%Possession51%
- 0Expected goals (xG)1
- 8Shots10
- 2Shots on target4
- 7Corners5
- 12Fouls14
- 2Yellow cards1
- 1Red cards0
- 5Offsides2
- 2Saves2
- 368Passes392
Line-ups
Mainz
- 27Robin Zentner
- 21Danny da Costa
- 30Silvan Widmer
- 10Nadiem Amiri
- 2Phillipp Mwene
- 7Jae-Sung Lee
- 5Maxim Leitsch
- 25Andreas Hanche-Olsen
- 8Paul Nebel
- 11Armindo Sieb
- 6Kaishu Sano
Borussia Dortmund
- 10Julian Brandt
- 20Marcel Sabitzer
- 5Ramy Bensebaini
- 4Nico Schlotterbeck
- 27Karim Adeyemi
- 1Gregor Kobel
- 3Waldemar Anton
- 8Felix Nmecha
- 24Daniel Svensson
- 14Maximilian Beier
- 2Yan Couto
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
MainzLDLW
Borussia DortmundDWWDW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 32 | +36 | 71 |
| 2 | Mainz | 32 | -8 | 39 |
Head to head
- Borussia Dortmund 4–0 Mainz2026-02-13
Match preview
Mainz host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on 27 September 2025. Mainz sit 10th on 39 points and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 71. Mainz have won 1 of their last 4 (LDLW), while Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of 5 (DWWDW). In their last 1 meetings, Mainz won 0, Borussia Dortmund won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
