Mainz vs Augsburg: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
MainzWLWLL
AugsburgLDLDL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 | Augsburg | 7 | +3 | 8 |
Head to head
- Mainz 2–0 Augsburg2026-02-07
- Augsburg 1–4 Mainz2025-09-20
Why the model leans Mainz
- Mainz are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Augsburg won 0 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Mainz 2, Augsburg 0, draws 0.
- League table: Mainz #8, Augsburg #12.
- Expected goals from the model: Mainz 1.8, Augsburg 1.3.
Match preview
Mainz host Augsburg in the Bundesliga on 20 March 2027. Mainz sit 8th on 10 points and Augsburg are 12th on 8. Mainz have won 2 of their last 5 (WLWLL), while Augsburg have won 0 of 5 (LDLDL). In their last 2 meetings, Mainz won 2, Augsburg won 0 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Mainz 49%, the draw 23% and Augsburg 28%, so Mainz are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
