Kick-off · Sun, 21 Feb, 07:00 pm ISTMatchday 20
Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya: Prediction
Madura United38%Away win
Persebaya Surabaya36% Home win26% Draw38% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.33 – 1.37
Team rating (Elo)1495 – 1563
Recent form
Madura UnitedWLDWLPersebaya SurabayaWDLWD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persebaya Surabaya | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | Madura United | 7 | +2 | 13 |
Head to head
- Persebaya Surabaya 3–1 Madura United2026-10-26
- Persebaya Surabaya 1–2 Madura United2026-04-17
- Madura United 0–1 Persebaya Surabaya2026-01-03
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
