FTMatchday 7

Lille vs Paris Saint-Germain: Prediction

📍 Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Lille1

Paris Saint-Germain1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

2 goals

LilleParis Saint-Germain

45'Lucas Hernándezyellow card
59'Senny Mayuluon
59'Bradley Barcolaon
59'Ibrahim Mbayeon
66'Nuno Mendes
Nabil Bentalebon66'
Hákon Arnar Haraldssonon66'
68'Lucas Hernándezon
Thomas Meunieron76'
Olivier Giroudon76'
Matias Fernandez-Pardoon81'
Ethan Mbappéassist Hamza Igamane85'
Benjamin Andréyellow card88'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

LilleParis Saint-Germain

38%Possession62%
1Expected goals (xG)1
9Shots16
3Shots on target5
3Corners5
11Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Offsides0
4Saves2
370Passes635

Line-ups

Lille

Paris Saint-Germain

21Lucas Hernández
19Lee Kang-in
9Gonçalo Ramos
29Bradley Barcola
51Willian Pacho
30Lucas Chevalier
33Warren Zaïre-Emery
4Lucas Beraldo
24Senny Mayulu
49Ibrahim Mbaye
47Quentin Ndjantou

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1462 – 1596

Recent form

LilleWWWLL

Paris Saint-GermainWWLWW

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint-Germain	9	+11	20
2	Lille	9	+11	17

Head to head

Lille 2–2 Paris Saint-Germain2026-08-28

Match preview

Lille host Paris Saint-Germain in the Ligue 1 on 5 October 2025. Lille sit 5th on 17 points and Paris Saint-Germain are 1st on 20. Lille have won 3 of their last 5 (WWWLL), while Paris Saint-Germain have won 4 of 5 (WWLWW). In their last 1 meetings, Lille won 0, Paris Saint-Germain won 0 and 1 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.