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Kick-off · Matchday 11

Lille vs Lyon: Prediction

Lille
50%Home win
Lyon

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.68 – 1.16
Team rating (Elo)1459 – 1507

Recent form

LilleLDLDW
LyonDWLWL
#TeamPGDPts
1Lille9+618
2Lyon8+614

Head to head

  • Lille 0–1 Lyon2025-09-28

Match preview

Lille host Lyon in the Ligue 1 on 21 November 2026. Lille sit 2nd on 18 points and Lyon are 5th on 14. Lille have won 1 of their last 5 (LDLDW), while Lyon have won 2 of 5 (DWLWL). In their last 1 meetings, Lille won 0, Lyon won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Lille 50%, the draw 24% and Lyon 26%, so Lille are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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