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Kick-off · Matchday 11

Lens vs Toulouse: Prediction

Lens
51%Home win
Toulouse

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.72 – 1.14
Team rating (Elo)1479 – 1506

Recent form

LensLWLWL
ToulouseDWDWD
#TeamPGDPts
1Lens9+313
2Toulouse8+110

Head to head

Not enough past results yet.

Match preview

Lens host Toulouse in the Ligue 1 on 21 November 2026. Lens sit 8th on 13 points and Toulouse are 11th on 10. Lens have won 2 of their last 5 (LWLWL), while Toulouse have won 2 of 5 (DWDWD). There is no recent head-to-head record between these sides in our data. TipKhel's model gives Lens 51%, the draw 24% and Toulouse 25%, so Lens are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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