Köln vs Union Berlin: Prediction
📍 RheinEnergieStadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
KölnLWLDD
Union BerlinLWDDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Head to head
- Union Berlin 1–1 Köln2026-11-01
- Union Berlin 2–2 Köln2026-05-02
- Köln 0–1 Union Berlin2025-12-20
Why the model leans Köln
- Köln are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Union Berlin won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Köln 0, Union Berlin 1, draws 2.
- Expected goals from the model: Köln 1.7, Union Berlin 1.4.
Match preview
Köln host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on 6 March 2027. Köln sit 13th on 8 points and Union Berlin are 15th on 7. Köln have won 1 of their last 5 (LWLDD), while Union Berlin have won 1 of 5 (LWDDD). In their last 3 meetings, Köln won 0, Union Berlin won 1 and 2 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Köln 46%, the draw 23% and Union Berlin 31%, so Köln are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
