Köln vs Hamburg: Prediction
📍 RheinEnergieStadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
KölnLWLDD
HamburgWWWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamburg | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 2 | Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 |
Head to head
- Hamburg 2–1 Köln2026-09-19
- Hamburg 1–1 Köln2026-03-14
- Köln 4–1 Hamburg2025-11-02
Why the model leans Köln
- Köln are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Köln 1, Hamburg 1, draws 1.
- Expected goals from the model: Köln 1.7, Hamburg 1.4.
Match preview
Köln host Hamburg in the Bundesliga on 13 February 2027. Köln sit 13th on 8 points and Hamburg are 11th on 9. Köln have won 1 of their last 5 (LWLDD), while Hamburg have won 3 of 5 (WWWLL). In their last 3 meetings, Köln won 1, Hamburg won 1 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Köln 46%, the draw 23% and Hamburg 31%, so Köln are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
