Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
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Recent form
HoffenheimLLWWL
Werder BremenWDDWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 2 | Hoffenheim | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Head to head
- Werder Bremen 2–0 Hoffenheim2026-10-31
- Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder Bremen2026-05-09
- Werder Bremen 0–2 Hoffenheim2026-01-27
Why the model leans Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Hoffenheim 2, Werder Bremen 1, draws 0.
- League table: Hoffenheim #16, Werder Bremen #3.
- Expected goals from the model: Hoffenheim 1.8, Werder Bremen 1.3.
Match preview
Hoffenheim host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on 6 March 2027. Hoffenheim sit 16th on 6 points and Werder Bremen are 3rd on 14. Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5 (LLWWL), while Werder Bremen have won 3 of 5 (WDDWW). In their last 3 meetings, Hoffenheim won 2, Werder Bremen won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hoffenheim 49%, the draw 23% and Werder Bremen 28%, so Hoffenheim are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
