Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
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Recent form
HoffenheimLLWWL
Union BerlinLWDDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
| 2 | Hoffenheim | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Head to head
- Hoffenheim 3–1 Union Berlin2026-01-31
- Union Berlin 2–4 Hoffenheim2025-09-13
Why the model leans Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim rate higher on our strength scale (1501 vs 1455).
- Hoffenheim are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Union Berlin won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Hoffenheim 2, Union Berlin 0, draws 0.
- Expected goals from the model: Hoffenheim 2.0, Union Berlin 1.2.
Match preview
Hoffenheim host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on 24 April 2027. Hoffenheim sit 16th on 6 points and Union Berlin are 15th on 7. Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5 (LLWWL), while Union Berlin have won 1 of 5 (LWDDD). In their last 2 meetings, Hoffenheim won 2, Union Berlin won 0 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hoffenheim 55%, the draw 22% and Union Berlin 23%, so Hoffenheim are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
