Hoffenheim vs Paderborn: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
HoffenheimLLWWL
PaderbornWLDWD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paderborn | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Hoffenheim | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Head to head
- Paderborn 3–1 Hoffenheim2026-09-20
Why the model leans Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- League table: Hoffenheim #16, Paderborn #10.
- Expected goals from the model: Hoffenheim 1.8, Paderborn 1.3.
Match preview
Hoffenheim host Paderborn in the Bundesliga on 13 February 2027. Hoffenheim sit 16th on 6 points and Paderborn are 10th on 9. Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5 (LLWWL), while Paderborn have won 2 of 5 (WLDWD). In their last 1 meetings, Hoffenheim won 0, Paderborn won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hoffenheim 48%, the draw 23% and Paderborn 29%, so Hoffenheim are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
