Hoffenheim vs Mainz: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
HoffenheimLLWWL
MainzWLWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 | Hoffenheim | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Head to head
- Hoffenheim 1–2 Mainz2026-04-04
- Mainz 1–1 Hoffenheim2025-11-21
Why the model leans Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Hoffenheim 0, Mainz 1, draws 1.
- League table: Hoffenheim #16, Mainz #8.
- Expected goals from the model: Hoffenheim 1.8, Mainz 1.3.
Match preview
Hoffenheim host Mainz in the Bundesliga on 15 May 2027. Hoffenheim sit 16th on 6 points and Mainz are 8th on 10. Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5 (LLWWL), while Mainz have won 2 of 5 (WLWLL). In their last 2 meetings, Hoffenheim won 0, Mainz won 1 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hoffenheim 48%, the draw 23% and Mainz 29%, so Hoffenheim are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
