Hoffenheim vs Köln: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
HoffenheimLLWWL
KölnLWLDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Köln | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 2 | Hoffenheim | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Head to head
- Köln 3–2 Hoffenheim2026-08-29
- Hoffenheim 0–1 Köln2025-10-03
Why the model leans Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim rate higher on our strength scale (1501 vs 1442).
- Hoffenheim are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Köln won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Hoffenheim 0, Köln 2, draws 0.
- Expected goals from the model: Hoffenheim 2.0, Köln 1.2.
Match preview
Hoffenheim host Köln in the Bundesliga on 23 January 2027. Hoffenheim sit 16th on 6 points and Köln are 13th on 8. Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5 (LLWWL), while Köln have won 1 of 5 (LWLDD). In their last 2 meetings, Hoffenheim won 0, Köln won 2 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hoffenheim 57%, the draw 21% and Köln 22%, so Hoffenheim are the slight favourites, with 2-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
