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FTMatchday 14

Hoffenheim vs Hamburg: Prediction

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Match events

6 goals
HoffenheimHamburg
  1. Grischa Prömelassist Wouter Burger8'
  2. 29'Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörfferyellow card
  3. Ozan Kabakassist Grischa Prömel31'
  4. 46'Giorgi Gocholeishvilion
  5. 65'Nicolás Capaldoyellow card
  6. Tim Lemperleassist Bazoumana Touré65'
  7. Andrej Kramarićon67'
  8. Bazoumana Touréon67'
  9. 67'Jonas Mefferton
  10. Fisnik Asllaniassist Alexander Prass72'
  11. Grischa Prömelyellow card74'
  12. 77'Albert Sambi Lokongayellow card
  13. 78'Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörfferon
  14. Tim Lemperleon80'
  15. Grischa Prömelon80'
  16. 82'Rayan Philippeassist Fábio Vieira
  17. Vladimír Coufalon88'
  18. 88'Nicolás Capaldoon
  19. 90'Rayan Philippeassist Rayan Philippe

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

HoffenheimHamburg
  • 59%Possession41%
  • 1Expected goals (xG)1
  • 10Shots14
  • 6Shots on target5
  • 3Corners3
  • 16Fouls10
  • 1Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0
  • 2Offsides1
  • 4Saves2
  • 560Passes389

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

  • 1Oliver Baumann
  • 27Andrej Kramarić
  • 5Ozan Kabak
  • 6Grischa Prömel
  • 34Vladimír Coufal
  • 18Wouter Burger
  • 19Tim Lemperle
  • 21Albian Hajdari
  • 7Leon Avdullahu
  • 2Robin Hranáč
  • 29Bazoumana Touré

Hamburg

  • 23Jonas Meffert
  • 25Jordan Torunarigha
  • 1Daniel Fernandes
  • 6Albert Sambi Lokonga
  • 24Nicolás Capaldo
  • 20Fábio Vieira
  • 11Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer
  • 28Miro Muheim
  • 16Giorgi Gocholeishvili
  • 45Fábio Baldé
  • 44Luka Vušković
  • 45Fábio Baldé

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–
Expected goals (model)–
Team rating (Elo)1501 – 1455

Recent form

HoffenheimWWDWL
HamburgLLLWW
#TeamPGDPts
1Hoffenheim32+1157
2Hamburg32-1436

Head to head

  • Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburg2026-10-10
  • Hamburg 1–2 Hoffenheim2026-04-25

Match preview

Hoffenheim host Hamburg in the Bundesliga on 13 December 2025. Hoffenheim sit 5th on 57 points and Hamburg are 11th on 36. Hoffenheim have won 3 of their last 5 (WWDWL), while Hamburg have won 2 of 5 (LLLWW). In their last 2 meetings, Hoffenheim won 1, Hamburg won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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