Hoffenheim vs Freiburg: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
HoffenheimLLWWL
FreiburgDWLLW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | Hoffenheim | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Head to head
- Hoffenheim 3–0 Freiburg2026-02-14
- Freiburg 1–1 Hoffenheim2025-09-28
Why the model leans Hoffenheim
- Freiburg rate higher on our strength scale (1518 vs 1501).
- Hoffenheim are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Hoffenheim 1, Freiburg 0, draws 1.
- League table: Hoffenheim #16, Freiburg #4.
- Expected goals from the model: Hoffenheim 1.7, Freiburg 1.4.
Match preview
Hoffenheim host Freiburg in the Bundesliga on 10 April 2027. Hoffenheim sit 16th on 6 points and Freiburg are 4th on 13. Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5 (LLWWL), while Freiburg have won 2 of 5 (DWLLW). In their last 2 meetings, Hoffenheim won 1, Freiburg won 0 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hoffenheim 45%, the draw 23% and Freiburg 32%, so Hoffenheim are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
