Hamburg vs Werder Bremen: Prediction
📍 Volksparkstadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
HamburgWWWLL
Werder BremenWDDWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Werder Bremen | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 2 | Hamburg | 7 | -7 | 9 |
Head to head
- Werder Bremen 3–1 Hamburg2026-04-18
- Hamburg 3–2 Werder Bremen2025-12-07
Why the model leans Hamburg
- Werder Bremen rate higher on our strength scale (1489 vs 1455).
- Hamburg are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Hamburg won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Hamburg 1, Werder Bremen 1, draws 0.
- League table: Hamburg #11, Werder Bremen #3.
Match preview
Hamburg host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on 20 March 2027. Hamburg sit 11th on 9 points and Werder Bremen are 3rd on 14. Hamburg have won 3 of their last 5 (WWWLL), while Werder Bremen have won 3 of 5 (WDDWW). In their last 2 meetings, Hamburg won 1, Werder Bremen won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hamburg 42%, the draw 24% and Werder Bremen 34%, so Hamburg are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
