FTMatchday 13

Hamburg vs Werder Bremen: Prediction

📍 Volksparkstadion

Hamburg3

Werder Bremen2

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

5 goals

HamburgWerder Bremen

32'Jens Stageyellow card
45'Jens Stageassist Romano Schmid
Luka Vuškovićyellow card56'
Aboubaka Soumahoroon59'
Rayan Philippeon59'
62'Keke Toppyellow card
Albert Sambi Lokonga63'
69'Marco Grüllyellow card
69'Keke Toppon
74'Marco Friedlyellow card
Luka Vuškovićassist Fábio Vieira75'
78'Justin Njinmahassist Romano Schmid
79'Cameron Puertason
Bakery Jattaon82'
Fábio Vieiraon82'
Yussuf Poulsenassist Miro Muheim84'
87'Marco Grüllon
90'Romano Schmidyellow card
90'Abdoul Coulibalyyellow card
Jean-Luc Dompeon90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

HamburgWerder Bremen

54%Possession46%
1Expected goals (xG)1
12Shots10
6Shots on target3
5Corners3
8Fouls13
1Yellow cards6
0Red cards0
1Offsides2
1Saves3
456Passes384

Line-ups

Hamburg

7Jean-Luc Dompe
18Bakery Jatta
25Jordan Torunarigha
14Rayan Philippe
1Daniel Fernandes
6Albert Sambi Lokonga
24Nicolás Capaldo
20Fábio Vieira
21Nicolai Remberg
22Aboubaka Soumahoro
44Luka Vušković

Werder Bremen

32Marco Friedl
3Yukinari Sugawara
5Amos Pieper
20Romano Schmid
17Marco Grüll
6Jens Stage
18Cameron Puertas
14Senne Lynen
30Mio Backhaus
9Keke Topp
31Abdoul Coulibaly

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1455 – 1489

Recent form

HamburgLLLLW

Werder BremenDWDLD

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Hamburg	32	-14	36
2	Werder Bremen	32	-23	29

Head to head

Werder Bremen 3–1 Hamburg2026-04-18

Match preview

Hamburg host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on 7 December 2025. Hamburg sit 11th on 36 points and Werder Bremen are 16th on 29. Hamburg have won 1 of their last 5 (LLLLW), while Werder Bremen have won 1 of 5 (DWDLD). In their last 1 meetings, Hamburg won 0, Werder Bremen won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.