Hamburg vs Union Berlin: Prediction
📍 Volksparkstadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
HamburgWWWLL
Union BerlinLWDDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamburg | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Head to head
- Hamburg 3–2 Union Berlin2026-02-14
- Union Berlin 0–0 Hamburg2025-09-28
Why the model leans Hamburg
- Hamburg are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Hamburg won 3 of their last 5.
- Union Berlin won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Hamburg 1, Union Berlin 0, draws 1.
- League table: Hamburg #11, Union Berlin #15.
Match preview
Hamburg host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on 10 April 2027. Hamburg sit 11th on 9 points and Union Berlin are 15th on 7. Hamburg have won 3 of their last 5 (WWWLL), while Union Berlin have won 1 of 5 (LWDDD). In their last 2 meetings, Hamburg won 1, Union Berlin won 0 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hamburg 48%, the draw 23% and Union Berlin 29%, so Hamburg are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
