Hamburg vs RB Leipzig: Prediction
📍 Volksparkstadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
HamburgWWWLL
RB LeipzigWLLWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 2 | Hamburg | 7 | -7 | 9 |
Head to head
- Hamburg 1–2 RB Leipzig2026-03-01
- RB Leipzig 2–1 Hamburg2025-10-18
Why the model leans RB Leipzig
- RB Leipzig rate higher on our strength scale (1482 vs 1455).
- RB Leipzig won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Hamburg 0, RB Leipzig 2, draws 0.
- League table: Hamburg #11, RB Leipzig #6.
- Expected goals from the model: Hamburg 1.4, RB Leipzig 1.7.
Match preview
Hamburg host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on 6 February 2027. Hamburg sit 11th on 9 points and RB Leipzig are 6th on 12. Hamburg have won 3 of their last 5 (WWWLL), while RB Leipzig have won 3 of 5 (WLLWW). In their last 2 meetings, Hamburg won 0, RB Leipzig won 2 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hamburg 31%, the draw 23% and RB Leipzig 46%, so RB Leipzig are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
