Hamburg vs Mainz: Prediction
📍 Volksparkstadion
Not enough past results yet.
Match events
4 goals- ⚽Albert Sambi Lokongaassist Giorgi Gocholeishvili6'
- ⚽Rayan Philippeassist Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer10'
- Daniel Elfadliyellow card17'
- 42'Jae-Sung Leeyellow card
- 45'Dominik Kohryellow card
- 46'⇄Phillipp Mweneon
- ⚽Jean-Luc Dompeassist Nicolás Capaldo52'
- ⚽Rayan Philippeassist Nicolai Remberg61'
- 61'⇄Benedict Hollerbachon
- 62'⇄Dominik Kohron
- ⇄Albert Sambi Lokongaon62'
- Nicolai Rembergyellow card65'
- 65'Nadiem Amiriyellow card
- ⇄Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörfferon67'
- ⇄Jean-Luc Dompeon67'
- 71'⇄Jae-Sung Leeon
- 82'⇄Nadiem Amirion
- ⇄Rayan Philippeon82'
- ⇄Giorgi Gocholeishvilion82'
Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.
Match stats
- 35%Possession65%
- 1.91Expected goals (xG)0.67
- 15Shots11
- 9Shots on target4
- 1Corners4
- 14Fouls13
- 2Yellow cards3
- 0Red cards0
- 3Offsides3
- 4Saves5
- 285Passes514
Line-ups
Hamburg
Mainz
- 31Dominik Kohr
- 21Danny da Costa
- 10Nadiem Amiri
- 2Phillipp Mwene
- 9Arnaud Nordin
- 7Jae-Sung Lee
- 25Andreas Hanche-Olsen
- 8Paul Nebel
- 17Benedict Hollerbach
- 6Kaishu Sano
- 1Lasse Rieß
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
HamburgDLLWD
MainzLDLWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mainz | 32 | -8 | 39 |
| 2 | Hamburg | 32 | -14 | 36 |
Head to head
- Hamburg 0–5 Mainz2026-09-06
Match preview
Hamburg host Mainz in the Bundesliga on 5 October 2025. Hamburg sit 11th on 36 points and Mainz are 10th on 39. Hamburg have won 1 of their last 5 (DLLWD), while Mainz have won 1 of 5 (LDLWL). In their last 1 meetings, Hamburg won 0, Mainz won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
