Hamburg vs Freiburg: Prediction
📍 Volksparkstadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
HamburgWWWLL
FreiburgDWLLW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | Hamburg | 7 | -7 | 9 |
Head to head
- Hamburg 3–2 Freiburg2026-05-10
- Freiburg 2–1 Hamburg2026-01-10
Why the model leans Freiburg
- Close call: 37% Hamburg, 24% draw, 39% Freiburg.
- Freiburg rate higher on our strength scale (1518 vs 1455).
- Head-to-head in our records: Hamburg 1, Freiburg 1, draws 0.
- League table: Hamburg #11, Freiburg #4.
- Expected goals from the model: Hamburg 1.5, Freiburg 1.6.
Match preview
Hamburg host Freiburg in the Bundesliga on 15 May 2027. Hamburg sit 11th on 9 points and Freiburg are 4th on 13. Hamburg have won 3 of their last 5 (WWWLL), while Freiburg have won 2 of 5 (DWLLW). In their last 2 meetings, Hamburg won 1, Freiburg won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hamburg 37%, the draw 24% and Freiburg 39%, so Freiburg are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
