Hamburg vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction
📍 Volksparkstadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
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HamburgWWWLL
Borussia DortmundLDWWD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 2 | Hamburg | 7 | -7 | 9 |
Head to head
- Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hamburg2026-08-29
- Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Hamburg2026-03-21
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund rate higher on our strength scale (1529 vs 1455).
- Head-to-head in our records: Hamburg 0, Borussia Dortmund 2, draws 0.
- League table: Hamburg #11, Borussia Dortmund #2.
- Expected goals from the model: Hamburg 1.2, Borussia Dortmund 2.0.
Match preview
Hamburg host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on 23 January 2027. Hamburg sit 11th on 9 points and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 15. Hamburg have won 3 of their last 5 (WWWLL), while Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of 5 (LDWWD). In their last 2 meetings, Hamburg won 0, Borussia Dortmund won 2 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Hamburg 23%, the draw 22% and Borussia Dortmund 55%, so Borussia Dortmund are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
