Freiburg vs Mainz: Prediction
📍 Europa-Park Stadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
FreiburgDWLLW
MainzWLWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | Mainz | 7 | +2 | 10 |
Head to head
- Mainz 0–1 Freiburg2026-04-12
- Freiburg 4–0 Mainz2025-11-30
Why the model leans Freiburg
- Freiburg rate higher on our strength scale (1518 vs 1499).
- Freiburg are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Freiburg 2, Mainz 0, draws 0.
- League table: Freiburg #4, Mainz #8.
- Expected goals from the model: Freiburg 1.9, Mainz 1.3.
Match preview
Freiburg host Mainz in the Bundesliga on 17 April 2027. Freiburg sit 4th on 13 points and Mainz are 8th on 10. Freiburg have won 2 of their last 5 (DWLLW), while Mainz have won 2 of 5 (WLWLL). In their last 2 meetings, Freiburg won 2, Mainz won 0 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Freiburg 50%, the draw 23% and Mainz 27%, so Freiburg are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
