Freiburg vs Mainz: Prediction
📍 Europa-Park Stadion
Not enough past results yet.
Match events
4 goals- ⚽Lukas Küblerassist Philipp Lienhart12'
- ⚽Vincenzo Grifoassist Lucas Höler26'
- 28'Paul Nebelred card
- ⚽Johan Manzambiassist Yuito Suzuki50'
- 52'Sota Kawasakiyellow card
- 54'⇄Arnaud Nordinon
- 65'Stefan Bellyellow card
- ⇄Lukas Kübleron69'
- ⇄Yuito Suzukion69'
- 72'⇄Jae-Sung Leeon
- 73'⇄Stefan Bellon
- 73'⇄Benedict Hollerbachon
- ⇄Jan-Niklas Besteon80'
- ⇄Johan Manzambion81'
- ⇄Philipp Treuon87'
- ⚽Patrick Osterhageassist Matthias Ginter90'
Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.
Match stats
- 75%Possession25%
- 3Expected goals (xG)0
- 23Shots1
- 10Shots on target1
- 6Corners2
- 9Fouls12
- 0Yellow cards2
- 0Red cards1
- 4Offsides0
- 1Saves6
- 719Passes244
Line-ups
Freiburg
- 28Matthias Ginter
- 8Maximilian Eggestein
- 3Philipp Lienhart
- 9Lucas Höler
- 17Lukas Kübler
- 32Vincenzo Grifo
- 19Jan-Niklas Beste
- 14Yuito Suzuki
- 1Noah Atubolu
- 29Philipp Treu
- 44Johan Manzambi
Mainz
- 16Stefan Bell
- 21Danny da Costa
- 2Phillipp Mwene
- 9Arnaud Nordin
- 7Jae-Sung Lee
- 8Paul Nebel
- 17Benedict Hollerbach
- 6Kaishu Sano
- 24Sota Kawasaki
- 1Lasse Rieß
- 48Kacper Potulski
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
FreiburgDDLDL
MainzLLLDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 32 | -8 | 41 |
| 2 | Mainz | 32 | -8 | 39 |
Head to head
- Mainz 0–1 Freiburg2026-04-12
Match preview
Freiburg host Mainz in the Bundesliga on 30 November 2025. Freiburg sit 8th on 41 points and Mainz are 10th on 39. Freiburg have won 0 of their last 5 (DDLDL), while Mainz have won 0 of 5 (LLLDD). In their last 1 meetings, Freiburg won 1, Mainz won 0 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
