Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction
📍 Europa-Park Stadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
FreiburgDWLLW
Borussia DortmundDWWDW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 7 | +3 | 13 |
Head to head
- Borussia Dortmund 4–0 Freiburg2026-04-26
- Freiburg 1–1 Borussia Dortmund2025-12-14
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund rate higher on our strength scale (1538 vs 1518).
- Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Freiburg 0, Borussia Dortmund 1, draws 1.
- Expected goals from the model: Freiburg 1.4, Borussia Dortmund 1.7.
Match preview
Freiburg host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on 22 May 2027. Freiburg sit 4th on 13 points and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 15. Freiburg have won 2 of their last 5 (DWLLW), while Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of 5 (DWWDW). In their last 2 meetings, Freiburg won 0, Borussia Dortmund won 1 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Freiburg 32%, the draw 23% and Borussia Dortmund 45%, so Borussia Dortmund are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
