FTMatchday 14

Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction

📍 Europa-Park Stadion

Freiburg1

Borussia Dortmund1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

2 goals

FreiburgBorussia Dortmund

Johan Manzambiyellow card11'
11'Yan Coutoyellow card
31'Ramy Bensebainiassist Yan Couto
53'Jobe Bellinghamred card
56'Fábio Silvaon
Maximilian Eggesteinyellow card72'
Lucas Hölerassist Christian Gunter75'
Anthony Jungon76'
Christian Gunteron76'
78'Carney Chukwuemekaon
78'Sehrou Guirassyon
83'Julian Ryersonyellow card
Lukas Kübleryellow card90'
90'Emre Canon
90'Yan Coutoon

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

FreiburgBorussia Dortmund

57%Possession43%
2Expected goals (xG)1
21Shots9
6Shots on target4
6Corners0
11Fouls9
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
5Offsides0
3Saves5
502Passes390

Line-ups

Freiburg

28Matthias Ginter
30Christian Gunter
8Maximilian Eggestein
9Lucas Höler
17Lukas Kübler
5Anthony Jung
14Yuito Suzuki
6Patrick Osterhage
1Noah Atubolu
29Philipp Treu
44Johan Manzambi

Borussia Dortmund

23Emre Can
5Ramy Bensebaini
9Sehrou Guirassy
4Nico Schlotterbeck
26Julian Ryerson
21Fábio Silva
1Gregor Kobel
8Felix Nmecha
17Carney Chukwuemeka
2Yan Couto
7Jobe Bellingham

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1518 – 1538

Recent form

FreiburgLDLWL

Borussia DortmundLDWWW

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	32	+36	71
2	Freiburg	32	-8	41

Head to head

Borussia Dortmund 4–0 Freiburg2026-04-26

Match preview

Freiburg host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on 14 December 2025. Freiburg sit 8th on 41 points and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 71. Freiburg have won 1 of their last 5 (LDLWL), while Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of 5 (LDWWW). In their last 1 meetings, Freiburg won 0, Borussia Dortmund won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.