Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: Prediction
📍 Europa-Park Stadion
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
FreiburgDWLLW
Bayer LeverkusenWWWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +2 | 12 |
Head to head
- Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 Freiburg2026-10-18
- Freiburg 3–3 Bayer Leverkusen2026-03-07
- Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Freiburg2025-10-26
Why the model leans Freiburg
- Freiburg are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Freiburg 0, Bayer Leverkusen 2, draws 1.
- Expected goals from the model: Freiburg 1.7, Bayer Leverkusen 1.4.
Match preview
Freiburg host Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on 27 February 2027. Freiburg sit 4th on 13 points and Bayer Leverkusen are 7th on 12. Freiburg have won 2 of their last 5 (DWLLW), while Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of 5 (WWWLL). In their last 3 meetings, Freiburg won 0, Bayer Leverkusen won 2 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Freiburg 44%, the draw 23% and Bayer Leverkusen 33%, so Freiburg are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
