FTMatchday 25

Köln vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction

Köln1

Borussia Dortmund2

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

KölnBorussia Dortmund

16'Sehrou Guirassyassist Maximilian Beier
Jahmai Simpson-Puseyred card45'
45'Ramy Bensebainiyellow card
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannessonon46'
60'Maximilian Beierassist Julian Brandt
61'Sehrou Guirassyon
61'Julian Ryersonon
82'Ramy Bensebainion
82'Maximilian Beieron
Eric Martelyellow card86'
Said El Malaon86'
Tom Kraußon86'
Ragnar Acheon86'
Jakub Kamiński88'
90'Felix Nmechaon

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

KölnBorussia Dortmund

39%Possession61%
1.14Expected goals (xG)1.95
14Shots13
4Shots on target5
9Corners4
9Fouls13
1Yellow cards1
1Red cards0
5Offsides2
3Saves4
359Passes602

Line-ups

Köln

1Marvin Schwabe
5Tom Krauß
9Ragnar Ache
6Eric Martel
18Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
16Jakub Kamiński
33Rav van den Berg
32Kristoffer Lund Hansen
22Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
13Said El Mala

Borussia Dortmund

10Julian Brandt
20Marcel Sabitzer
5Ramy Bensebaini
9Sehrou Guirassy
4Nico Schlotterbeck
26Julian Ryerson
1Gregor Kobel
3Waldemar Anton
8Felix Nmecha
24Daniel Svensson
14Maximilian Beier

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1442 – 1538

Recent form

KölnLWLLL

Borussia DortmundWWWWL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	32	+36	71
2	Köln	32	-12	31

Head to head

Borussia Dortmund 1–0 Köln2025-10-25

Match preview

Köln host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on 7 March 2026. Köln sit 14th on 31 points and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 71. Köln have won 1 of their last 5 (LWLLL), while Borussia Dortmund have won 4 of 5 (WWWWL). In their last 1 meetings, Köln won 0, Borussia Dortmund won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.