Kick-off · Sat, 6 Feb, 08:30 pm ISTMatchday 24
Everton vs Newcastle United: Prediction
Everton45%Home win
Newcastle United45% Home win25% Draw30% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.57 – 1.25
Team rating (Elo)1480 – 1490
Recent form
EvertonDWDLLNewcastle UnitedLWLLW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 2 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 |
Head to head
- Newcastle United 2–3 Everton2026-02-28
- Everton 1–4 Newcastle United2025-11-29
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
