Kick-off · Thu, 11 Feb, 01:30 am ISTMatchday 25
Everton vs Leeds United: Prediction
Everton41%Home win
Leeds United41% Home win25% Draw34% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.48 – 1.32
Team rating (Elo)1480 – 1516
Recent form
EvertonDWDLLLeeds UnitedWDLDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds United | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 2 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 |
Head to head
- Everton 1–1 Leeds United2026-01-26
- Leeds United 1–0 Everton2025-08-18
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
