FTMatchday 17

Elche vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction

📍 Estadio Martínez Valero

Elche4

Rayo Vallecano0

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

4 goals

ElcheRayo Vallecano

Héctor Fortassist Álvaro Rodríguez6'
Héctor Forton12'
22'Nobel Mendyyellow card
33'Iván Balliuon
57'Unai Lopezyellow card
60'Óscar Valentínon
Álvaro Rodríguezassist Pedro Bigas67'
Germán Valeraassist Álvaro Rodríguez70'
75'Nobel Mendyon
75'Unai Lopezon
75'Alfonso Espinoon
Aleix Febasyellow card79'
Marc Aguadoon80'
Álvaro Rodríguezon80'
Pedro Bigason80'
82'Florian Lejeuneyellow card
Josanyellow card84'
Rafa Miron89'
Martim Carvalho Netoassist Josan90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

ElcheRayo Vallecano

47%Possession53%
2Expected goals (xG)1
18Shots18
6Shots on target8
4Corners5
15Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
1Offsides4
8Saves2
346Passes399

Line-ups

Elche

10Rafa Mir
6Pedro Bigas
18John Donald
14Aleix Febas
22David Affengruber
11Germán Valera
8Marc Aguado
13Iñaki Peña
20Álvaro Rodríguez
39Héctor Fort
15Álvaro Núñez

Rayo Vallecano

17Unai Lopez
18Alvaro Garcia
24Florian Lejeune
22Alfonso Espino
7Isi Palazón
23Óscar Valentín
3Pep Chavarría
20Iván Balliu
10Sergio Camello
13Augusto Batalla
32Nobel Mendy

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1468 – 1502

Recent form

ElcheLDLWL

Rayo VallecanoLDDLD

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Rayo Vallecano	35	-2	48
2	Elche	35	-8	40

Head to head

Rayo Vallecano 0–3 Elche2026-10-24
Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Elche2026-04-03

Match preview

Elche host Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga on 21 December 2025. Elche sit 15th on 40 points and Rayo Vallecano are 6th on 48. Elche have won 1 of their last 5 (LDLWL), while Rayo Vallecano have won 0 of 5 (LDDLD). In their last 2 meetings, Elche won 1, Rayo Vallecano won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.