FTMatchday 16

Deportivo Alavés vs Real Madrid: Prediction

📍 Estadio de Mendizorroza

Deportivo Alavés1

Real Madrid2

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

Deportivo AlavésReal Madrid

Abde Rebbachyellow card-5'
Víctor Paradayellow card6'
24'Kylian Mbappéassist Jude Bellingham
Abde Rebbachon67'
Pablo Ibáñezon67'
Calebeon67'
Carlos Vicenteassist Antonio Blanco68'
76'Rodrygoassist Vinícius Júnior
78'Arda Güleron
80'Vinícius Júnioryellow card
Denis Suárezon83'
83'Rodrygoon
Víctor Paradaon89'
89'Vinícius Júnioron
Ander Guevarayellow card90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Deportivo AlavésReal Madrid

52%Possession48%
1.36Expected goals (xG)1.83
6Shots13
2Shots on target6
5Corners7
12Fouls13
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
2Offsides0
4Saves1
488Passes462

Line-ups

Deportivo Alavés

4Denis Suárez
1Antonio Sivera
15Lucas Boyé
17Jonathan Otto
8Antonio Blanco
5Jon Pacheco
14Nahuel Tenaglia
19Pablo Ibáñez
24Víctor Parada
21Abde Rebbach
20Calebe

Real Madrid

1Thibaut Courtois
22Antonio Rudiger
7Vinícius Júnior
10Kylian Mbappé
8Federico Valverde
11Rodrygo
14Aurelien Tchouameni
5Jude Bellingham
15Arda Güler
17Raúl Asencio

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1462 – 1567

Recent form

Deportivo AlavésLWLLW

Real MadridDWDWL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Real Madrid	35	+40	82
2	Deportivo Alavés	35	-8	43

Head to head

Real Madrid 2–1 Deportivo Alavés2026-04-21

Match preview

Deportivo Alavés host Real Madrid in the La Liga on 14 December 2025. Deportivo Alavés sit 9th on 43 points and Real Madrid are 2nd on 82. Deportivo Alavés have won 2 of their last 5 (LWLLW), while Real Madrid have won 2 of 5 (DWDWL). In their last 1 meetings, Deportivo Alavés won 0, Real Madrid won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.