Kick-off · Sat, 5 Dec, 08:30 pm ISTMatchday 14
Chelsea vs Liverpool: Prediction
Chelsea38%Home win
Liverpool38% Home win25% Draw37% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.42 – 1.38
Team rating (Elo)1502 – 1556
Recent form
ChelseaDLWWLLiverpoolDWLWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 8 | +3 | 15 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 |
Head to head
- Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea2026-05-09
- Chelsea 2–1 Liverpool2025-10-04
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
