Kick-off · Sat, 21 Nov, 08:30 pm ISTMatchday 11
Chelsea vs Leeds United: Prediction
Chelsea44%Home win
Leeds United44% Home win25% Draw31% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.56 – 1.26
Team rating (Elo)1502 – 1516
Recent form
ChelseaDLWWLLeeds UnitedWDLDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 2 | Leeds United | 8 | +3 | 11 |
Head to head
- Chelsea 2–2 Leeds United2026-02-10
- Leeds United 3–1 Chelsea2025-12-03
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
