Kick-off · Sat, 19 Dec, 08:30 pm ISTMatchday 16
Chelsea vs Aston Villa: Prediction
Chelsea44%Home win
Aston Villa44% Home win25% Draw31% Away win
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.54 – 1.27
Team rating (Elo)1504 – 1522
Recent form
ChelseaDLWWLAston VillaLWDWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 |
Head to head
- Aston Villa 1–4 Chelsea2026-03-04
- Chelsea 1–2 Aston Villa2025-12-27
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
