FTMatchday 18

Chelsea vs Aston Villa: Prediction

📍 Stamford Bridge

Chelsea1

Aston Villa2

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

ChelseaAston Villa

30'Matty Cashyellow card
João Pedroassist Reece James37'
Reece Jamesyellow card57'
57'Morgan Rogersyellow card
58'Emiliano Buendiaon
59'John McGinnon
59'Donyell Malenon
63'Ollie Watkins
Trevoh Chalobahyellow card68'
Marc Cucurellaon69'
Alejandro Garnachoon69'
João Pedroon69'
Liam Delapyellow card71'
Moisés Caicedoyellow card71'
Cole Palmeron72'
78'Boubacar Kamarayellow card
83'Ian Maatsenon
83'Boubacar Kamaraon
84'Ollie Watkinsassist Youri Tielemans
Enzo Fernándezyellow card90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

ChelseaAston Villa

63%Possession37%
2Expected goals (xG)1
14Shots11
3Shots on target8
6Corners7
16Fouls8
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Offsides0
6Saves2
528Passes321

Line-ups

Chelsea

1Robert Sanchez
5Benoit Badiashile
20João Pedro
24Reece James
7Pedro Neto
3Marc Cucurella
23Trevoh Chalobah
25Moisés Caicedo
10Cole Palmer
8Enzo Fernández
49Alejandro Garnacho

Aston Villa

23Emiliano Martinez
10Emiliano Buendia
8Youri Tielemans
7John McGinn
3Victor Lindelof
2Matty Cash
4Ezri Konsa
17Donyell Malen
44Boubacar Kamara
27Morgan Rogers
22Ian Maatsen

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1524 – 1526

Recent form

ChelseaDLDWD

Aston VillaWWWWW

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Aston Villa	38	+7	65
2	Chelsea	38	+6	52

Head to head

Aston Villa 1–4 Chelsea2026-03-04

Match preview

Chelsea host Aston Villa in the Premier League on 27 December 2025. Chelsea sit 10th on 52 points and Aston Villa are 4th on 65. Chelsea have won 1 of their last 5 (DLDWD), while Aston Villa have won 5 of 5 (WWWWW). In their last 1 meetings, Chelsea won 1, Aston Villa won 0 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.