FTMatchday 5

Burnley vs Nottingham Forest: Prediction

📍 Turf Moor

Burnley1

Nottingham Forest1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

2 goals

BurnleyNottingham Forest

2'Neco Williams
Florentino Luísyellow card16'
Jaidon Anthonyassist Lyle Foster20'
59'Dilane Bakwaon
75'Chris Woodon
76'Dan Ndoyeon
76'Douglas Luizon
Loum Tchaounaon81'
Lyle Fosteron86'
90'Moratoyellow card

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

BurnleyNottingham Forest

37%Possession63%
0.85Expected goals (xG)1.10
12Shots17
5Shots on target8
4Corners5
12Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Offsides2
7Saves4
348Passes628

Line-ups

Burnley

2Kyle Walker
1Martin Dubravka
24Josh Cullen
29Josh Laurent
16Florentino Luís
11Jaidon Anthony
18Hjalmar Ekdal
9Lyle Foster
5Maxime Esteve
17Loum Tchaouna
3Quilindschy Hartman

Nottingham Forest

11Chris Wood
26Matz Sels
35Oleksandr Zinchenko
12Douglas Luiz
31Nikola Milenković
3Neco Williams
10Morgan Gibbs-White
8Elliott Anderson
29Dilane Bakwa
14Dan Ndoye
4Morato

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1497 – 1492

Recent form

BurnleyLWWLL

Nottingham ForestWDLLL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Nottingham Forest	38	-3	44
2	Burnley	38	-37	22

Head to head

Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley2026-04-19

Match preview

Burnley host Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on 20 September 2025. Burnley sit 19th on 22 points and Nottingham Forest are 16th on 44. Burnley have won 2 of their last 5 (LWWLL), while Nottingham Forest have won 1 of 5 (WDLLL). In their last 1 meetings, Burnley won 0, Nottingham Forest won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.